Although I now work for the Toronto Blue Jays and their minor league affiliate in Dunedin, Florida, I'm always going to be a Giants fan at heart. Their race with the Atlanta Braves in 1993 toward the NL West championship, the greatest pennant race of all time, made me a fan for life, and is a team that always sticks with me (Bonds, Lewis and McGee in the outfield. Williams, Clayton, Thompson and Clark in the infield. Manwaring catching a pitching staff with two 20-game winners in Burkett and Swift, Trevor Wilson and Bud Black as the other starters, and a bullpen that included Dave Burba, Mike Jackson and Rod Beck.)
But as I grow in knowledge of what it takes to compile a successful baseball team, I can only sit and frown at this past offseason for the San Francisco Giants. A team that overachieved in 2009 thanks to a really good defense and probably the best pitching staff in all of baseball, they were right in the thick of things in the National League Wild Card with a week left in the season, only to see the Colorado Rockies speed past on their way to the postseason.
With a season like that behind them, the Giants were looked upon as a team that had the most to gain this offseason. A pitching staff that features the best young pitcher in the game in Tim Lincecum, a great compliment in Matt Cain, a talented if erratic left in Jonathan Sanchez (he of the first no-hitter for the Giants in 33 years) and the promise of talented young left-hander Madison Bumgarner, who is projected to be an ace-level pitcher. Oh, and Barry Zito, too. They had a budding superstar in Pablo Sandoval, who's hacktastic ways and phenomenal batting eye gave him the best offensive year by a third baseman for the Giants since the days of Matt Williams. The rest of the offense was non-descript, but position by position, there was a chance that with an upgrade here or there, that the Giants would contend in the NL West and have a chance to overtake either the Dodgers or Rockies.
Unfortunately, none of that looks like it's going to happen.
Even with a couple of bad contracts coming off the books, the 2010 Giants look to be similar to the 2009 incarnation. Gone is Randy Winn in right field (to be replaced by Nate Schierholtz) but questions remain about the outfielders. Aaron Rowand, much like Zito, will not be able to play to the level of his contract, as his offensive numbers have declined each year he has been with the Giants, and his defense, while still above average, is not worth $12 million a year in center field.
Left field is where I have a big problem with the Giants philosophy...and it's funny to note that this starts a domino effect with the other positions and the rest of the Giants offseason. The signing of Mark DeRosa, a super utility player with pop that can play six positions on the diamond, was originally thought to place him at third base (where he is decent defensively) and move the defensive liability of Sandoval over to first base, where he holds more value. But then Sabean decided that instead of having Sandoval play first, he needed a veteran instead, and signed Aubrey Huff to a contract. Now, Huff hasn't played first base often over the last few years, and is primarily a DH. He's not Adam Dunn, so him being at first base carries both an offensive and defenisve liability, as well. Huff has power, but doesn't get on base well, and him being a left-handed power guy doesn't work in a ballpark where Barry Bonds was the exception, not the norm. The signing of Huff shifted DeRosa to LF and Sandoval back at 3B, lessening the defense at all three positions while helping the offense at only third.
The Giants were also practically handcuffed into bringing Bengie Molina back one for season as catcher, as uberstud Buster Posey was not-quite ready for primetime. That being said, Molina now serves as someone who could be turned into a prime piece of trading deadline beef, bringing in a prospect or two as Posey readies himself to become the Giants catcher of the future. It wasn't a great signing or even a good signing, but at the very least, it gave the Giants stability behind the plate.
But none of those signings carry as much of a burden as the decision to bring back second baseman Freddy Sanchez before the end of the World Series for a two year deal worth $12 million. The market for second basemen hadn't been set yet, and Sanchez's numerous injury problems made him a liabilty. Furthermore, with Juan Uribe looking to get re-signed (which he eventually was), second base was perfect for Uribe, who showed a good amount of pop with the bat and decent defense (although his most vivid defensive memory was his bumble of a ground ball that could have made Jon Sanchez's no-no a perfecto) and could have slid in perfectly at second base for a lot less money.
After all this, the starting line-up now looks like this:
OF: Mark DeRosa (LF), Aaron Rowand (CF), Nate Schierholtz (RF)
IF: Pablo Sandoval (3B), Edgar Renteria (SS), Freddy Sanchez (2B), Aubrey Huff (1B)
C: Bengie Molina
SP: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner
There are some particular problems with the above situation, most due to making Sanchez the first pin to drop, setting all the other moves in motion. Considering how the market has turned out for second basemen, Sanchez could have been had a much cheaper price, and is now looking like he will be this offseason's version of the Renteria signing.
Now is the time where I put on my fantasy GM hat and help the Giants along.
The sudden derailment of Fred Lewis in left field boggles my mind. His on-base percentage was second on the team behind Sandoval (min. 250 PA), and if there's anything that has been learned from Moneyball, it's that even if the power isn't necessarily there, the ability to get on base is always key. He would start in left.
This would allow Nate Schierholtz to take over right field. While he is not really tested at the majors, he is projected to be a fine player in right defensively, although not an offensive stalwart like Sandoval. With him also being a cheap alternative to save the Giants money, he could be the RF for now.
I would retain Uribe as the starting second baseman, giving you above-average defense at second base with decent hitting. From there, if DeRosa is available, you sign him and put him at third base, moving Sandoval to first to improve the defense all around. I would have also brought back Yorvit Torrealba to catch for one season, as he is a cheaper option than Molina and is a good handler of the pitching staff. With that in mind, the revised line-up would look like this:
OF: Fred Lewis (LF), Aaron Rowand (CF), Nate Schierholtz (RF)
IF: Mark DeRosa (3B), Edgar Renteria (SS), Juan Uribe (2B), Pablo Sandoval (1B)
C: Yorvit Torrealba (C)
Why I Did It This Way
For a team that has a Top 5 pitching staff, the most important asset in a park like AT&T is not the offense that you produce, but the number of runs you can prevent. You prevent the runs with good pitching and good defense behind you. The starting staff is comprised of flyball pitchers who try to miss bats and mix up their pitches to keep hitters off balance. With a huge outfield, this means that you need speed to help track down the fly balls your pitchers give up, and thankfully, the outfield is big enough to allow the outfielders room to roam.
Using the Ultimate Zone Range (UZR) stat, which is a comprehensive look at defensive value, you upgrade defensively in LF, RF, 3B, 2B, 1B and C as opposed to the team that is constructed now, and using UZR/150 games, it's even more apparent the change you get.
Offensively, it's basically a wash in LF with DeRosa and Lewis, but the shifting of the positions keeps the offensive totals more in line with the expectaions at each position. DeRosa is a HUGE improvement at third over Sandoval, but is also worth enough offensively that his above average defense pushes him into a territory that sees him be a valuable commodity. Sandoval's value increases defensively while also being a top-notch hitter at first. Uribe's offensive prowess at second base along with his good defense is a huge upgrade over Sanchez, who's balky knee and shoulder have increased his decline over the past two years in all facets of the game. You're not getting much out of Renteria or Rowand, who are both league average defensively at their positions and are well into their declines. Torrealba is a much cheaper stopgap at catcher as they wait for Posey to be ready, and is also better defensively while providing modest offense for a catcher, making his overall value better than Molina, who can't draw a walk if he was given an Etch-a-Sketch.
What's great about the moves I made is that you also save a lot of money, meaning that if you need to make a marked improvement at any position, it's there to be made. Obviously, if you were able to sign someone like Adrian Beltre, you would step in there, move DeRosa to second base, and make Uribe a super-utility guy. Beltre would add at least 2-3 wins with his defense alone and is a decent enough hitter to carry the position. However, Beltre wouldn't sign with the Giants, so I didn't make him a part of my solution. In a perfect world, an infield of Beltre, Renteria, DeRosa and Sandoval would be a good defensive infield and provide pop at three of the four positions. In fact, if Renteria struggled and Uribe stepped in at short, he'd be only a little worse defensively than Edgar while being a marked improvement offensively. A Beltre signing, along with the addition of DeRosa, would have given the Giants flexibility that they hadn't had in a long time, and would have been a huge step forward in improving their projection.
However, this offseason has seen the Giants overspend on players that are on the downside of their careers and are defenisve liabilities at their positions. Improving offensively for a team that is terrible in that are is one thing, but doing so at the expense of a defense that allowed their pitching staff to prosper is not allowing anybody to feel like the team has truly improved. The additions to the 2010 Giants aren't going to put them over the top, and considering the problems facing the Giants now with the arbitration case facing Tim Lincecum, they are in deep trouble of putting themselves in position for a murky future instead of relishing in the prime of the best young pitcher in baseball and the emergence of an offensive force that should be the core of their team for years to come.
I understand that Brian Sabean was kept on for familiarity's sake by the new ownership group, but he is not helping the team improve towards being a playoff contender, let alone a team competing for a World Championship. 2010 should be a step forward, but for us Giants fans, it looks like it will instead be yet another tease of what could have been.
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